July 15, 2026
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Michael's Daily Notes
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More Evidence We’re Not So Divided After All
For twenty years, the Cooperative Election Study - run by political scientists Brian Schaffner of Tufts and Stephen Ansolabehere of Harvard - has surveyed more than 700,000 Americans about how they vote and why. Recently, as they explained in a New York Times essay, they asked something apolitical: What was the most important thing that happened in your life this past year?
The results should humble the polarization industry. Trump voters' top three answers: a medical issue, household finances, the death of a loved one. Harris voters' top three: identical, and in the same order. A Trump voter mourned a father who died in January; a Harris voter, one lost on Christmas Eve. In red and blue America alike, life, death, and economics - not politics - define our years.
Their broader research complicates the popular two-America narrative further. About half the country belongs to four predictable blocs - White Evangelicals voting Republican; Black, secular, and LGBTQ Americans voting Democratic. But the other half, roughly 46 percent, is what they call the Mosaic Middle: a hundred smaller groups pulled in competing directions, splitting tickets, changing minds - and picking the winner in eleven of the last twelve presidential elections.
Most striking: a typical Harris voter shares more demographic traits with a typical Trump voter than with fellow Harris voters. The divide, it turns out, is narrower than the pundits and politicians would have you believe. You can listen to my podcast interview with Professor Schaffner here.
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DAILY POLL
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What is the greatest sports rivalry?
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TOP STORY
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Spain advanced to the 2026 World Cup final with a 2-0 semifinal victory over France on Bastille Day, as Mikel Oyarzabal converted a first-half penalty and Pedro Porro sealed the win to set up a championship clash with either England or Argentina.
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TODAY'S YOUTUBE
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SPONSORED BY PARX CASINO
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IN OTHER NEWS
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The House passed the Sunshine Protection Act in a 308-117 vote to make daylight saving time permanent, though the bill still faces an uncertain future in the Senate amid debate over brighter evenings versus darker winter mornings.
ICE has ordered its Enforcement and Removal Operations officers to suspend most vehicle stops nationwide, except for serious criminal targets, following fatal shootings of men in Biddeford, Maine and Houston, Texas who were pulled over while agents were searching for other people.
President Trump met with his national security team in the Situation Room to discuss expanding U.S. military strikes against Iran, warning of broader attacks on critical infrastructure unless Tehran agrees to negotiate over its nuclear program.
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A MESSAGE FROM INCOGNI
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Unknown Number Calling? It's Not Random
The BBC caught scam call center workers on hidden cameras as they laughed at the people they were tricking. One worker bragged about making $250k from victims. The disturbing truth? Scammers don’t pick phone numbers at random. They buy your data from brokers. Once your data is out there, it’s not just calls. It’s phishing, impersonation, and identity theft.
That’s why we recommend Incogni: They delete your info from the web, monitor and follow up automatically, and continue to erase data as new risks appear.
England and Argentina will renew one of sports' fiercest rivalries on Wednesday, meeting in a World Cup semifinal for the first time with a spot in the tournament final at stake after more than 150 years of history, political conflict and unforgettable matches.
Before his sudden death at 71, Sen. Lindsey Graham reportedly declined immediate medical attention because he wanted to complete a scheduled TV appearance, remaining focused on advancing key foreign policy priorities including Russia sanctions and Israeli-Saudi normalization.
Supreme Court Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Elena Kagan made a rare joint appearance before Congress to pitch a roughly $14 million security boost, describing bulletproof vests and swatting incidents, while Kagan implicitly rebuked President Trump's attacks on the judiciary as crossing the line into intimidation.
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CARTOONS
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by Rob Rogers
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MORE NEWS
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A renewed push to open New York City's primary elections to all registered voters is setting up a potential political clash with Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who argues the current closed primary system boosts participation and helped fuel his own rise to office.
E. Jean Carroll has received about $5.625 million, including three years of interest, after the Supreme Court declined to hear President Trump's appeal of the 2023 Manhattan jury verdict that found him liable for sexually abusing and defaming her.
Anthropic’s latest ad has sparked backlash by highlighting fears that AI could become dangerously powerful—even deadly—while positioning the company as a responsible leader in AI safety despite critics questioning whether its actions match its messaging.
For the Left
House Republicans are considering attaching the SAVE America Act to must-pass legislation to advance the election integrity bill, which would require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration and updates despite criticism that it could create barriers for millions of married women.
For the Right
The CDC has confirmed 1,645 cases of cyclosporiasis across 34 states and is investigating more than 5,100 additional cases, as officials work to identify the outbreak's source amid concerns that reduced federal disease surveillance and staffing cuts have hindered the response.
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