July 24, 2026
|
Michael's Daily Notes
|
Let North Carolina Go First
The Democrats are quietly fighting over something that could decide their 2028 nominee — not a candidate, but a calendar. This week a DNC panel began setting the order of the early primary states, and per The New York Times, the fight between South Carolina and Nevada has curdled into an ugly contest framed as “Black voters versus brown voters.” Party officials call that framing dangerous. I'm not a Democrat, but as an academic exercise (or just for sh*&ts and giggles) I want to tackle the question.
I'd say that to begin a process that selects the strongest candidate, Democrats need to weigh four factors. The first state should be a battleground, hold an open primary, be diverse, and be geographically compact — so the vetting New Hampshire once provided continues.
Rank the seven states both parties fought over in 2024 by that test, and here's the order:
1. North Carolina — battleground, open to independents, diverse, and compact. Checks every box.
2. Georgia — open and even more diverse, but bigger and less compact.
3. Michigan — open battleground, but middling on diversity.
4. Wisconsin — open and compact, but among the least diverse.
5. Nevada — most diverse and smallest — but a closed primary shuts out independents.
6. Arizona — diverse, but closed and vast.
7. Pennsylvania — the biggest November prize, but a closed primary (for now!) and the largest to contest.
Two things stand out. South Carolina — the current front-runner — isn't a battleground at all; Democrats haven't carried it since 1976, so it can't test who wins in November. Ironically, South Carolina holds an open primary — but openness can't rescue a state your party can't win. And Nevada, the other favorite, runs a closed primary that locks out the very independents a first contest should be measuring.
North Carolina does what neither can. It hands the decisive role to a large Black electorate — what South Carolina's champions want — but inside a state Democrats can actually win, with a primary open to independents and a map compact enough to campaign directly, even if its 11 million people and several media markets make it no cheap place to run.
Battleground, open, diverse, compact. Only one state checks every box.
It should be North Carolina.
##
|
DAILY POLL
|
Is it ever appropriate for federal prosecutors to subpoena journalists to reveal their confidential sources?
|
TOP STORY
|
President Trump is imposing new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 trading partners, including the European Union, China, and Canada, in a move the administration says targets forced labor practices but that could raise prices for U.S. consumers.
|
TODAY'S YOUTUBE
|
SPONSORED BY PARX CASINO
|
IN OTHER NEWS
|
A man was arrested after allegedly stabbing two people—including a Jewish man wearing a kippah—during separate attacks on Manhattan's Upper West Side, prompting a hate crime investigation amid allegations the assault was motivated by antisemitism.
The Justice Department withdrew subpoenas seeking grand jury testimony and phone records from New York Times journalists reporting on security concerns around President Trump's Qatar-gifted Air Force One, after Judge Arun Subramanian threatened to quash them and sanction federal attorneys.
As Democrats prepare to finalize the 2028 presidential primary calendar, South Carolina and Nevada are engaged in an increasingly contentious battle over which state should vote first, highlighting broader debates over racial representation, electoral strategy, and the party's future.
|
A MESSAGE FROM INCOGNI
|
That scam call wasn’t random.
Scammers don’t just guess your number. They buy personal info from data brokers - companies selling your phone number, home address, relatives’ info, and more online. That’s how a “random” call turns into phishing, impersonation, identity theft - or just someone knowing more about you than they should. That’s where Incogni steps in. It removes your personal data from these databases and keeps removing it automatically. Use the 4th of July discount and get 58% off for July with code SMERCONISH.
Hours after Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed a civilian nuclear pact with Saudi Arabia, President Trump added a new condition requiring Riyadh to join the Abraham Accords, blindsiding the Saudis and his own negotiators after conservative media criticism.
The Trump administration is seeking authority to rename New York's Penn Station—potentially honoring President Trump—as part of its federal overhaul while also proposing broader transit policy changes tied to crime, bike lanes, and federal funding.
President Trump told Axios he is seriously considering a new attack on Iran that would be bigger than Operation Epic Fury, saying the Iranians "haven't received enough pain yet" to accept a deal, as oil tops $100 a barrel and Houthi attacks on Saudi ships widen the crisis.
|
CARTOONS
|
by Eric Allie
|
MORE NEWS
|
Smithsonian National Museum of American History Director Anthea Hartig told lawmakers she has "no regrets" about the museum's exhibits despite Republican criticism over a Benjamin Franklin display and a White House report accusing the institution of promoting ideological activism.
Oil prices surged to their highest levels in nearly two months, with Brent crude topping $100 per barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea intensified fears of widening conflict and major disruptions to global energy supplies.
An Arizona reporter has publicly disclosed the full text of the first ransom note sent to the family of Savannah Guthrie's 84-year-old mother Nancy, who was abducted from her Tucson home on February 1, demanding a Bitcoin payment and warning that her life was "in your hands."
For the Left
Sen. John Fetterman called New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani a “clown” over his threat to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, arguing the mayor lacks the legal authority to enforce an International Criminal Court warrant and should focus instead on New York City’s local issues.
For the Right
A new Washington Post/Ipsos poll finds more than 60% of Americans are dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s major construction projects in Washington, D.C., citing concerns over their high cost, disruptions to the city and the impact on its historic landmarks and appearance.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here.