June 17, 2026

Michael's Daily Notes

We've not yet seen the official Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran, the final version of which is to be signed on Friday in Switzerland - but you can read a draft in today's newsletter. If the reported terms hold, Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. In exchange, the U.S. will help create a $300 billion fund for Iran's rehabilitation and economic development.

The Wall Street Journal editorial page calls this a "retreat" - language I borrowed for yesterday's poll question, asking whether Trump folded too soon. The result was close but affirmative: 51.4 percent to 48.86 percent. I was in that slight majority.

Even the New York Post, no dove on Iran, is questioning a promise Tehran has made and broken before regarding its nuclear ambitions - noting the gap between what it says and what it does.

I’m readying my post mortem along these lines: The administration never made an effective case that Iran posed an imminent threat. But Netanyahu found himself in the right place at the right time, finally persuading an American president to attempt regime change based on an outlook that the Iranian people would rise up. They didn't. Our military hit every target, but regime change doesn't come from the air alone - it takes troops on the ground, a commitment Trump would not make. As gas prices rose with the midterms on the horizon, America’s lack of patience became Iran’s best weapon.

Now, Trump appears to have had it with Netanyahu ("Bibi has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon.") Iran's missile program is degraded but not obliterated. Same for its nuclear capability – and we don't have the "dust." The leadership has changed but not the regime. The U.S. is about to pay war reparations. And Iran wins simply by not losing.

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DAILY POLL

Was 2024 already lost for Democrats before Biden dropped out?

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Al Arabiya English obtained the 14-point draft Memorandum of Understanding expected to be signed Friday between Washington and Tehran, calling for an immediate end to the war, a US naval blockade lift, at least $300 billion in reconstruction financing, sanctions relief and Iran's pledge never to produce nuclear weapons.

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Drawing on more than three million pages released under the Epstein Files Transparency Act and over 40 new interviews, a Times investigation reconstructs Jeffrey Epstein's 2019 arrest and his volatile weeks at the Metropolitan Correctional Center, concluding that his death was most likely the result of suicide amid systemic failures and missed warning signs, rather than an elaborate murder conspiracy.

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A Russian warship, the Admiral Grigorovich, fired warning shots from rifles near a UK-registered yacht carrying a couple in their 60s in the English Channel on Tuesday after the small motorless boat drifted toward the frigate in foggy conditions south of the Isle of Wight.

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For the Left

Actor Rainn Wilson ("The Office") criticized what he called partisan hypocrisy over scrutiny of Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner's controversial tattoo, arguing that both Democrats and Republicans apply different standards to their political opponents.

For the Right

Sen. Susan Collins says she has no regrets about voting to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, saying she relied on his qualifications and assurances at the time, even as critics point to the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and the abortion restrictions that followed.

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