June 24, 2026

Michael's Daily Notes

The Mamdani Wave and the 2028 Problem

Last night in New York told us where the passion in the Democratic Party lives - and it isn't where the party's 2028 frontrunners are standing.

Zohran Mamdani went three-for-three on his congressional endorsements. Brad Lander unseated two-term incumbent Dan Goldman. Claire Valdez took an open Brooklyn-Queens seat. And Darializa Avila Chevalier edged out five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat. All three are Democratic Socialists. The energy is on the left, it's organized, and in a primary it topples the establishment. It also enforced a litmus test: every winner was willing to criticize Israel.

But thirty miles north, in the swing 17th District, Democrats picked Cait Conley - an Army veteran and former counterterrorism official - to challenge Mike Lawler. That's not an outlier. It's the same instinct that elected Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, governor of Virginia, and Mikie Sherrill, a Navy helicopter pilot, governor of New Jersey. When Democrats have to win, they reach for moderate women with national-security resumes. When the seat is safe, they reward the socialist.

Now hold that against Mark Halperin's latest "8 for 2028" ranking: Newsom, Shapiro, Harris, Buttigieg, Sanders, Ossoff, Pritzker, Emanuel. Which is the candidate of last night? Only Sanders - the 84-year-old who endorsed Lander and Valdez. The movement has a hero, not a future. And Shapiro, my home-state governor, would carry into that primary the very Israel litmus test New York just imposed.

The only certainty: the GOP will draw great fodder from casting the entire party as socialists. It's an age-old line of attack. The difference now is that, for some of these Democrats, it's actually true - and they ran on it.

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Will the Nancy Guthrie case ever be solved?

TOP STORY

Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s influence surged in New York’s Democratic primaries as his slate of progressive House candidates scored major victories, while races nationwide highlighted battles over AI regulation, Trump’s endorsements, and the future direction of both parties.

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