June 28, 2026
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Michael's Daily Notes
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Is the iPhone the most effective form of birth control ever invented?
It makes intuitive sense: when people spend more time on smartphones, they are spending less time in person. No mingling! Without in-person contact, there is less opportunity for intimacy. Less intimacy, fewer kids. But now comes a scientific analysis that goes a long way toward establishing causation.
It's a new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the title is the question above - not mine, theirs.
Here's the setup. When the iPhone launched in 2007, it was exclusive to AT&T until early 2011. If you carried Verizon or T-Mobile, you were probably still thumbing a flip phone or a BlackBerry. That accident of corporate exclusivity created a natural experiment: counties with the strongest AT&T coverage got iPhones first.
And those same counties saw the steepest drops in birth rates - especially among teenagers and twentysomethings. Run the same test on Verizon and Sprint's footprint and nothing turns up. The researchers conclude that the spread of the iPhone explains between 33 and 52 percent of the decline in fertility among women aged 15 to 44.
The proposed mechanism is exactly what you'd guess: less time spent together in person, more time alone with a screen, and less sex.
Last week, the New York Times' Christine Emba was my guest on CNN to discuss the broader birthrate question. This week, the paper's author joined me on both SiriusXM and CNN - Middlebury College economics professor Caitlin Myers.
You can read her paper here.
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DAILY POLL
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Team USA is 1 of 32 teams left in the World Cup. Will they make the final 4?
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TOP STORY
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The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage kicks off Sunday with Canada vs. South Africa and featuring a favorable matchup for the US against Bosnia and Herzegovina come Wednesday, with 32 teams battling for 16 advancing slots all before the tournament's host country turns 250 on July 4th.
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TODAY'S YOUTUBE
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SPONSORED BY PARX CASINO
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IN OTHER NEWS
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The U.S. military launched a second wave of strikes on Iranian military targets after the IRGC attacked a crude oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump warning on Truth Social that "the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist".
Ukraine's secretive First Separate Center of Unmanned Systems is using long-range drones to strike oil infrastructure and military targets deep inside Russia, reflecting Kyiv's growing reliance on rapidly advancing drone technology to pressure the Kremlin and reshape the war.
Prince Harry and Duchess Meghan have accepted King Charles III's invitation to stay at a royal residence during part of their July 7-11 UK visit, their first return as a couple in four years, with kids Archie and Lilibet in tow but no public appearances planned.
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A MESSAGE FROM COMCAST
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The Supreme Court is expected to rule next week on President Donald Trump's executive order seeking to end automatic citizenship for babies born on U.S. soil to noncitizen parents, a case that could overturn more than a century of 14th Amendment precedent.
The Trump administration is close to lifting its 15-day block on Anthropic's powerful Fable 5 model, with access potentially restored as soon as this week after Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent helped defuse a four-month standoff over AI security concerns.
The Great American State Fair on the National Mall showcases exhibits from most states as part of the nation's 250th anniversary celebration, but sparse attendance, missing participants and concerns over political overtones have left many visitors questioning whether it fulfills its goal of promoting national unity.
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CARTOONS
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MORE NEWS
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Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's reported 'no-gifts wedding request' has sparked an etiquette debate, with experts largely agreeing that guests should respect the couple's wishes and, if they feel compelled to give, consider a heartfelt card or charitable donation instead.
As David Ellison's $111 billion Paramount-Skydance merger with Warner Bros. Discovery nears completion, CNN anchors and correspondents are flocking to talent chief Amy Entelis's office to vent fears about a potential takeover that could hand oversight to CBS editor-in-chief Bari Weiss.
President Trump nominated Lance Schroyer, a former Oklahoma state trooper and U.S. Marine, to lead Immigration and Customs Enforcement, an agency that hasn't had a Senate-confirmed director since 2017.
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For the Left
Scott Pressler said he was denied entry to a South Dakota Republican Party dinner featuring Senator John Thune despite holding a ticket, prompting backlash from MAGA supporters and conflicting claims over who ordered Pressler's exclusion.
For the Right
Families who have lost children to social media-related harms are urging Congress to strengthen online safety laws as landmark court verdicts and new lawsuits increase pressure on tech companies to improve site-specific protections for young users.
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