May 18, 2026

Michael's Daily Notes

Cassidy, Massie and Fetterman. Sounds like a law firm before the age of single names. Here’s what they have in common.

Bill Cassidy's defeat Saturday night will be covered as a Trump loyalty test - and it was. But the Washington Post's editorial board identified a deeper story: Cassidy's third-place finish is also a casualty of the nationwide assault on open primaries (Washington Post).

Here's what the Post reported that you need to know. Louisiana didn't always have a closed primary. For 50 years, it ran a "jungle" system - every candidate on one ballot, top two advance regardless of party. That's how Cassidy built coalitions that included independents and moderate Democrats. Then the state legislature killed it. Partly, the Post says, to get rid of Cassidy. And it worked.

This isn't just Louisiana. The Post documents a national pattern: California Democrats pushing to eliminate their jungle primary. Alaska Republicans trying to repeal ranked-choice voting. Tennessee adding a loyalty oath - signed under penalty of perjury - for primary voters. In D.C., Democrats are simply ignoring a 2024 referendum that voters passed to open their primaries. Both parties, when it suits them, want the same thing: a viselike grip on who gets nominated. 

Which brings us to Tuesday. Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie - Trump's next target - faces the most expensive House primary in American history, $25.6 million according to AdImpact (The Hill). AIPAC alone has poured in nearly half of all outside spending against him (Politico). And Kentucky is a closed primary state - registered independents cannot vote Tuesday (Kentucky Lantern). Only Republicans decide.

If Kentucky had an open primary, Massie's cross-partisan independence might be an asset. Under a closed system, it's a liability.

Open primaries aren't a guarantee of moderation. But they're the closest thing we have to a structural check on extremism. When party bosses - on both sides - narrow the electorate to their most activated voters, the rest of us get the government they want, not the government we need.

And here's where it hits close to home for me. A February 2026 Quinnipiac poll found that 73% of Pennsylvania Republicans approve of John Fetterman's job performance - compared to just 22% of Democrats in his own party. He almost certainly cannot survive a competitive Democratic primary in 2028. But in an open primary Pennsylvania? He might. The closed primary system won't just cost us Bill Cassidy and maybe Thomas Massie - it could cost Pennsylvania a senator who actually reflects where most Pennsylvanians are. John Fetterman has a bigger stake in my litigation to open Pennsylvania’s primaries than I do.

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