November 3, 2026 - Prediction Markets Favor Dem Senate Sweep

The betting markets have already called one question. Heading into today, Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 94 percent chance of winning the House and 74 percent of taking the Senate. The final New York Times/Siena polls had Democrats ahead in all seven toss-up Senate races. If that holds, this is a wave.

The more interesting wager is about 2028. Axios reports that the party’s would-be presidential contenders placed very different midterm bets.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went nearly all-in on Michigan, putting $1 million and her own time behind progressive Abdul El-Sayed’s Senate bid. She says his win would “break open the entire political calculus in America.” The odds now favor her. El-Sayed led by 11 in the final Times/Siena poll, and traders give him roughly a 78 percent chance - this despite his primary rival, Rep. Haley Stevens, crossing party lines to endorse Republican Mike Rogers.

Here in Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro is carrying the center-left’s hopes. He needs a double-digit win over Stacy Garrity and coattails long enough to flip Republican House seats, perhaps even Brian Fitzpatrick’s in Bucks County. Polls have him ahead by 20-plus.

So both lanes will likely pass their tests. The Senate map won’t settle it either. The red-state Democrats competing to flip seats range from populists like Sherrod Brown in Ohio to moderates like Mary Peltola in Alaska and Josh Turek in Iowa.

There’s precedent for a muddle. In 2018, Democrats gained 40 House seats, many flipped by moderates in the suburbs. The Squad got the attention, the 2020 field ran left, and then primary voters chose Joe Biden.

The wave looks likely. The fight over what it means starts tomorrow, and it won’t be about AOC and Shapiro alone. It will be about which kind of Democrat the party decides it should nominate.

##

Election Day is here, and prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have shifted in Democrats’ favor, giving them the edge in all seven key battleground Senate races, including surprising leads in traditionally Republican states such as Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska.

Mediaite

In a Reflecting Pool speech billed as his closing midterm message, President Trump spent most of his hour recounting plumbing fixes and renovation projects in Washington, barely mentioning the elections before conceding that incumbent presidents usually lose the midterms.

CNN

The U.S. has carried out limited defensive strikes against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz amid rising regional tensions, renewed diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader conflict, and political pressure on the Trump administration ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Associated Press

Prosecutors told a Plymouth Superior Court judge Monday they intend to retry Lindsay Clancy for the killings of her three children after her first trial ended in a hung jury, with Judge William Sullivan leaning toward a March date though charges have not been decided.

CBS News

If that question gave you pause for even a second, the answer is no.

So much of our personal information is online. While plenty of data brokers use it for legitimate reasons, bad actors also want your sensitive details—like your Social Security number, DOB, and phone number—for malicious purposes. Not good.

Before you slap your phone after another scam call, try Incogni. They scrub your personal data from online aggregators, forums, and classic "people search sites." Right now, our readers get 58% off with code SMERCONISH.

A Common Defense survey of 731 active-duty service members, veterans and military families found 79% believe politicians and society are leaving them behind, with 53% of active-duty respondents saying growing politicization has them considering an early exit from the military.

Military.com

William McGurn argues that Rep. Haley Stevens’ decision to endorse Republican Mike Rogers over Democratic primary winner Abdul El-Sayed and the bitter backlash she received from the Left for crossing party lines exposes deep divisions within the Democratic Party — particularly over support for Israel and rising concerns about antisemitism — and raises broader concerns about its direction.

The Wall Street Journal

Nathalia Gadelha Filgueiras, a 20-year-old co-pilot with 1,300 hours of flying experience, texted her boyfriend — who is also a pilot — about turbulence and ice just 10 minutes before the Learjet crashed in Florida, killing all nine people aboard.

New York Post

Suspected cyberattacks sent refrigerator and freezer temperatures soaring at dozens of supermarkets across Belgium, Sweden and other European countries overnight, spoiling food and prompting concern as the Pentagon investigates similar incidents at six U.S. military commissaries.

Axios

The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to require California to separate the ballots of more than 20,000 voters it suspects are likely non-citizens, after a federal appeals court rejected the same bid last week in the final days of the midterms.

Axios

Fox News lost 27% of its total day viewers in October versus a year earlier and hit a 25-year low in the 25-54 demoraphic, with Lachlan Murdoch blaming viewer fatigue as CNN and MS NOW gained ground.

Yahoo Finance