October 11, 2026

Michael's Daily Memo

Do the midterms really matter to Donald Trump?  

The question sounds absurd. Of course he cares. In January he warned House Republicans that if they lost the midterms, “I’ll get impeached.” But look at his conduct since then and the question starts to seem fair.

Forget the idea that the election is three weeks away. In-person voting began in mid-September, and ballots are already being cast across the country.

Holding the House, where Republicans have a razor-thin majority, was always going to be a long shot. The Senate should have been different. Republicans hold 53 seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four.

Then Trump repeatedly backed weak Republicans when stronger ones were available. In Texas, he endorsed Ken Paxton over the incumbent, John Cornyn, despite warnings from his own advisers that Paxton would be a weak nominee. Today Paxton is in a dead heat in a state Trump carried by double digits. In North Carolina, after Thom Tillis retired under threat of a Trump-backed primary, the president anointed Michael Whatley, who has trailed former Gov. Roy Cooper. Even South Carolina has edged toward competitive since he championed Darline Graham to succeed her late brother, Lindsey.

At a Rose Garden dinner, he promised Republican lawmakers he would campaign in all 35 of the most competitive House districts. He then opened October in Oklahoma and Alabama.

He has said gas prices won’t come down until after the election. And he refused to sign the bipartisan housing bill Republicans wanted to run on.

On Friday, trying to lower diesel prices before Election Day, he struck a deal with Vladimir Putin to lift sanctions on Russian fuel. When Volodymyr Zelenskyy objected, Trump called on Saturday for Ukraine to replace him.

On CNN yesterday, UVA’s Larry Sabato told me the Senate is now the Democrats’ to lose. Which brings me back to the question: How much does the president care?

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DAILY POLL

Does President Trump care who wins the midterms?

TOP STORY

President Donald Trump called on Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after Zelenskyy criticized a U.S.-Russia diesel deal and accused Trump of undermining Ukraine’s interests.

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More than a week after a 28-year-old Russian plague researcher died of unexplained pneumonia, authorities have yet to identify the pathogen that killed her, fueling concerns over the lack of transparency surrounding the case.

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias are threatening much of the East with flooding rain, strong winds and tornadoes as the storm moves from the Carolinas toward the Northeast through Sunday.

Democratic Senate candidate Alani Bankhead’s refusal to withdraw from Montana’s 2026 race has fractured the state’s party and raised concerns that she could split the Democratic vote and help Republican Kurt Alme win.

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Pope Leo XIV reaffirmed the Catholic Church’s opposition to the death penalty, arguing that it violates human dignity and that justice and public safety can be maintained while preserving the possibility of redemption, as Catholic leaders urged the Pentagon to reconsider the planned December execution of Nidal Hasan.

Ten people, including two children and an eight-month-pregnant woman and her unborn child, died in a mass shooting in Erie, Pennsylvania, with police reporting that the suspected shooter died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound and stated that the investigation into the killings remains ongoing.

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As Kamala Harris considers a third presidential campaign, her husband has privately expressed opposition to another run, while some donors have warned her that her chances of winning the nomination or presidency may be slim.

The Atlantic examines Megyn Kelly’s shift from Fox News anchor and advocate for women to a provocative YouTube commentator, focusing on her disparaging remarks about the developing case of Jane Doe at Cornell University and questioning whether Kelly believes the rhetoric she now promotes.

A legal ethics complaint has been filed against New York Attorney General Letitia James, alleging her public comments about the accuser in the “Cornell 7” case demonstrated bias before she was appointed special prosecutor, prompting calls for her recusal or removal from the investigation.

For the Left

President Trump appeared in Clarksville, Tennessee to support Republican Senator Bill Hagerty ahead of November’s midterm elections in a rally kicked off by Kid Rock, during which the musician criticized the media, praised Trump’s leadership and accused Islam of being a “religious cult”.

For the Right

On Friday, the Trump-aligned PAC began airing an attack ad in Arizona targeting Democrat Jonathan Nez, the former Navajo Nation president running against Republican Eli Crane, during which the spot erroneously featured photos of a different Navajo leader, Myron Lizer, who previously served as Nez’s VP.

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