October 25, 2026 - Protests Sweep Across Europe

All Eyes on Pennsylvania?

David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report was my guest yesterday on CNN, and he’ll join me tomorrow on SiriusXM. David is one of a handful of brilliant election analysts I’m able to host regularly. Mark Halperin, Doug Sosnik and Larry Sabato are in that same league, and I’ve been pleased to have each of them on recently.

David told me he puts the likelihood of Democrats taking the House at 95 percent, and their chance of winning both chambers at 60 to 65 percent. I asked: if he had a crystal ball and could learn just one outcome to know how the night is going, which would it be? He quickly said Texas, the Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, which right now he thinks leans toward Talarico. He cited Hispanic voters migrating back toward the Democratic Party, Paxton losing mainstream Republicans, and the prospect of low rural turnout. Together, those make Talarico’s math work.

If that happens, Wasserman thinks the Senate could end up 51-49 or 52-48 in Democratic hands. In the case of the former, the wildcard becomes John Fetterman of Pennsylvania.  He could determine Senate control.

The logic is that Fetterman can’t win a Democratic primary in 2028, and if he wants to remain in the Senate, maybe his best shot is to become an independent and caucus with the Republicans, the mirror image of Angus King and Bernie Sanders, who are independents caucusing with the Democrats. In a 51-49 Senate, that move would produce a 50-50 split. JD Vance would break the ties, the chamber would stay in Republican hands, and Fetterman would become the darling of the Trump administration.

Sound far-fetched? May I remind you that we have an Ohio governor’s race in which a mother has called the daughter she hasn’t seen in nearly half a century a “liar,” and an Alaska Senate race confusing some voters because two of the candidates are named Dan Sullivan.

I told Wasserman that if there is one person who should be rooting hardest for the Pennsylvania legislature to pass an open primary bill next spring, or for the litigation in which I’m involved to accomplish the same, it’s Fetterman.

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