October 31, 2026 - Tech Rout Sinks Stocks

The Magic Number Is 26.

Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats in a midterm. The range is enormous. Democrats lost 63 in 2010. Republicans gained eight in 2002, riding George W. Bush’s post-9/11 popularity.

So where does this year land?

The case for more is strong. The latest Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll puts President Trump’s approval at 33 percent, matching Harry Truman in 1946, when Democrats lost more than 50 seats. Seven in ten voters say the country is on the wrong track. Prices are outpacing wages, and diesel costs more than it did at the height of 2022’s inflation. Democrats lead the generic ballot by eight points, the same margin as 2006, when Republicans lost 31 seats.

The case for fewer comes down to arithmetic. Only about 50 House races are considered competitive, and Republicans hold 39 of them. To lose 26 seats, they would have to drop two-thirds of those, or start losing races nobody considers in play. With so many districts safe for one party and so few voters splitting their tickets, the 50- and 60-seat landslides of the past are harder to come by. Republicans also picked up an estimated three to five seats through redistricting.

Doug Sosnik, who expects Democrats to take the House and probably the Senate, puts their gain at 20-plus. That’s right around the historical average, not far beyond it.

So which will it be?

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