September 28, 2026 - Gates: AI Could Cause a Billion Deaths

The midterm election concludes 5 weeks from tomorrow. But nearly half of all states will have started early voting by October 6, so it’s wrong to think of the “election” being a month away. Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats in the Senate to take control, and a net gain of only 3 in the House. The latter seems like a foregone conclusion.

Few people read the American electorate as well as Doug Sosnik. He was White House political director and senior adviser to President Bill Clinton. Since then, strategists in both parties have come to watch for his periodic memos on the state of play. He joins me on radio today.

His latest memo, written 40 days before the midterms, argues that something shifted in early September. Sosnik sees the war in Iran as the inflection point. He says the slow Republican slide that followed has now reached a tipping point.

Much of his evidence is about the cost of living. Gas has risen from $2.98 a gallon to $4.48 since the invasion. Diesel is at an all-time high of $6.53. Inflation is outpacing wage growth, mortgage rates are back above 7 percent, and the Fed just raised rates for the first time in three years.

The polling reflects it. Trump's job approval is at 38 percent. Democrats lead the Fox News generic ballot by seven points, and by 15 among voters most interested in the election. In the New York Times poll, 63 percent said going to war with Iran was the wrong decision.

Sosnik isn't cheerleading, though. He warns that the shrinking number of competitive districts, along with a big Republican fundraising advantage, could hold Democratic gains below historical norms. He also cautions against treating the midterm results as a preview of 2028.

Tune in at 10am Eastern on SiriusXM POTUS, Channel 124, for his high-level analysis.

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Bill Gates urged the U.S. to lead on global AI regulation, telling NBC's "Meet the Press" that reaching an international framework could prove tougher than Cold War nuclear arms deals, and pushed back on President Trump's opposition to guardrails.

NBC News

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The Wall Street Journal

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The Guardian

U.S. Ambassador to China David Purdue said on Fox News Sunday that President Trump asked Xi Jinping during his three-day U.S. visit whether China would like to buy American weapons, a transaction that would run afoul of the U.S. arms embargo in place since Tiananmen Square in 1989.

Mediaite

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The Hill

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NPR

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Fox News

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USA Today

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MLB

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Variety