September 3, 2026

Michael's Daily Notes

Chris Stirewalt argues in The Hill that a third impeachment of Donald Trump is unavoidable. I think he's right about the arithmetic and wrong about the payoff.

Start with the House. Nate Silver's model gives Democrats an 86 percent chance of taking it. Decision Desk HQ says 66 percent. The mid-decade gerrymandering blitz that was supposed to save the GOP nets them three or four seats, nowhere near enough. Republicans are behaving like people who know it, punting their legislative agenda past November.

Democrats will win that majority on a wave of hostility toward the president. Reuters/Ipsos now has his approval at 33 percent, the lowest of his political career. That is the fuel.

And here's Stirewalt's sharpest point: a new Democratic House won't be able to do much else. It can't legislate past a veto. It can't conduct oversight, because this administration doesn't answer subpoenas and contempt citations are toothless. Impeachment is the one instrument that still commands judicial deference. The grounds are not in short supply - the crypto fortune, the gifted jumbo jet, the boat strikes, the impoundment of appropriated funds. The hard part would be deciding what to leave out.

But understand what impeachment can and cannot accomplish. The House impeaches by simple majority. Removal requires two-thirds of the Senate, 67 votes. Not 51. Nobody thinks Democrats come within 15 votes of that number, no matter how November goes. An impeachment is a charge, not a conviction.

Which brings me to my question. Two impeachments and four criminal indictments were each supposed to be the end of him. Each one made him stronger. The mugshot became merchandise. Grievance is his most reliable fundraising instrument, and his opponents keep supplying it.

Stirewalt's counter is that the Senate still changes something. A five-day acquittal is a stunt. An 82-day trial like Andrew Johnson's draws blood, even if the verdict is foreordained.

Would a third impeachment of Donald Trump strengthen or weaken him politically?

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DAILY POLL

Would a third impeachment of Donald Trump strengthen or weaken him politically?

TOP STORY

A shooting at a Minneapolis apartment building left two victims and the suspected gunman dead and six others injured, including three police officers; authorities say the suspect was facing eviction after alleged threats and had a lengthy history of encounters with law enforcement.

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After nearly 30 hours of deliberations, jurors in Lindsay Clancy’s murder trial remain deadlocked, prompting the judge to issue a final instruction urging consensus as the possibility of a hung jury, mistrial and potential retrial grows.

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The Trump administration has assigned hundreds of Homeland Security agents to search state voter rolls for noncitizens ahead of the midterms, launching an extensive federal effort despite decades of evidence showing that noncitizen voting in U.S. elections is extremely rare.

A MESSAGE FROM COMCAST

MapQuest surged to No. 1 among free iPhone apps after refusing to adopt President Trump’s “Lake America” renaming of Lake Ontario, driving a reported 6,295% increase in downloads as users rallied around the once-dominant mapping service.

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Tiger Woods, joined by girlfriend Vanessa Trump, changed his plea to no contest on lesser charges of reckless and careless driving stemming from a March rollover crash in Florida, drawing a five-year license suspension and a $1,000 fine.

CARTOONS

by Steve Breen

MORE NEWS

With Democrats favored to win the House in the midterms, columnist Chris Stirewalt argues a third Trump impeachment is increasingly likely, but whether it becomes a brief political exercise or a consequential battle could depend on which party controls the Senate.

The House voted 220-192 to condemn socialism “in all its forms,” with eight Democrats joining Republicans, as GOP leaders used the resolution to highlight Democratic socialist candidates and promote President Trump’s stalled SAVE America Act ahead of the midterm elections.

Nearly 30 years after Tupac Shakur’s murder, a Las Vegas jury convicted Duane “Keffe D” Davis of murder for his role in the 1996 shooting, delivering a long-awaited verdict while leaving lingering questions and conspiracy theories about the killing unresolved.

For the Left

The U.S. and China are accelerating preparations for potential warfare in space, developing maneuverable “hunter” satellites and other technologies capable of tracking, disrupting or attacking spacecraft as both countries increasingly treat control of Earth’s orbit as a national security priority.

For the Right

Thirty new lawsuits accuse OpenAI of failing to alert authorities after allegedly flagging the future Tumbler Ridge school shooter’s ChatGPT activity for gun-violence planning, while OpenAI disputes claims that senior leadership overruled a recommendation to notify police.

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