September 9, 2026

Michael's Daily Memo

Labor Day is behind us, which by tradition means the fall campaign has begun. Republicans are marking the occasion with something new: a midterm convention, opening today in Dallas, with President Trump as the headliner and vulnerable House incumbents encouraged to show up and stand beside him. So let's set the table.

Republicans hold the House 218 to 212, with one independent and four vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of about four seats once those vacancies are filled. The Senate is 53-47, and Democrats need four there as well - three gets them to 50-50, and JD Vance breaks ties.

History says the president's party pays in the midterm. Since World War II the average loss is 26 House seats. Every president who stood at 40 percent approval or below on Election Day - Bush in 2006, Trump in 2018, Biden in 2022 - lost the House. Trump today is at 36.

The current numbers point the same way. Democrats lead the generic ballot by about six and a half points. In 42 contested special elections this year they have run a median 10 points ahead of Trump's 2024 margins. Polymarket puts their odds of taking the House at 87 percent.

But Republicans have something no prior midterm party had: fresh maps. Since 2024, Texas, Florida, Ohio and others redrew their districts, a net cushion of roughly nine seats. Axios ran the scenarios. A six-point Democratic edge yields a narrow 221-214 majority. A ten-point edge yields 230-205. And if the electorate looks like 2024's - which is the bet Dallas is placing this week - Republicans gain 16.

One more thing. Sixty days out in 2022, the forecasts said red wave. Republicans gained nine.

So the question is not just who wins, but by how much.

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Who wins the House in November?

TOP STORY

US Central Command said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island after accusing Tehran of twice targeting a US warship, and Iran's IRGC retaliated with missile strikes on the Al Azraq base in Jordan and claimed hits on additional US vessels and tankers.

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IN OTHER NEWS

Three jurors from Lindsay Clancy's murder trial told NBC10 Boston that a single holdout juror acknowledged reasonable doubt but refused to find her not guilty by reason of insanity, leading to last week's mistrial after contentious deliberations.

Eighth-seeded American Ben Shelton outlasted seven-time major champion Carlos Alcaraz 6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6 in a four-hour, 28-minute U.S. Open quarterfinal that ended at 3:33 a.m., the latest finish in tournament history, and set up a semifinal against Frances Tiafoe.

A federal judge has blocked the mandatory portions of the Postal Service's new mail-ballot rule through the November 3 election, and the Trump administration's emergency appeal to the Supreme Court is pending as states like North Carolina have already begun mailing ballots.

A MESSAGE FROM COMCAST

New grand jury subpoenas signal an escalation in the Justice Department’s year-long investigation into alleged wrongdoing by intelligence officials involved in the Trump-Russia probe, though it remains unclear whether anyone will ultimately face criminal charges.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh declined Missouri’s request to reinstate a Republican-backed congressional map for the 2026 elections, leaving the state’s redistricting fight in legal limbo amid conflicting court rulings.

The Mid-American Conference says Big Ten replay officials violated protocol by adding a second to the clock at the end of Western Michigan's game at Michigan, and is asking the NCAA and College Football Playoff to recognize the Broncos as the 12–7 winner.

CARTOONS

by Rob Rogers

MORE NEWS

A quarter century after Richard Drew photographed an unidentified man plunging from the World Trade Center's north tower, the image remains one of 9/11's most haunting and contested, sequestered in the memorial museum yet still forcing viewers to confront the impossible choice faced by as many as 200 people that day.

Ahead of the 25th anniversary, President Donald Trump repeated claims that firefighters carried him from Ground Zero and that he sent hundreds of workers to aid recovery, assertions fact-checkers say lack supporting evidence.

The Hollywood Reporter ranks all 65 films to ever cross $1 billion at the worldwide box office, from Colin Trevorrow's 'Jurassic World Dominion' at No. 65 up through 2026 summer hits like 'The Odyssey,' 'Toy Story 5' and 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day.'

For the Left

Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to modernize military records, use digital tools including AI, and improve career assistance to help veterans access benefits, healthcare and employment opportunities more quickly.

For the Right

Comedian and host Jon Stewart mocked President Donald Trump and aide Natalie Harp, questioning whether Harp can be trusted to filter information for the president as he compared her to disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes.

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